Win probability — model vs consensus
Edge — model minus consensus (probability points)
Price board
| Market | Model p | Fair price | Consensus p | Edge (pp) | EV @ consensus |
|---|
The oracle feed
Every tick is an Ed25519-signed envelope on a public SSE feed. Subscribe:
curl -N "…/api/feed?mode=replay"
Verify any envelope against the feed public key:
key: loading…